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Alice & Bob Estimates 22,593 Qubits to Break RSA-2048
TL;DR
New research from Alice & Bob demonstrates that fault-tolerant cat-qubit hardware could break RSA-2048 encryption with a record-low number of physical qubits. The study highlights the accelerating timeline for quantum threats to classical cryptography and the necessity of transitioning to post-quantum standards.
A new research paper from Alice & Bob presents a significant reduction in the theoretical quantum resources required to execute Shor’s algorithm against widely used cryptographic standards. By leveraging a specialized cat-qubit architecture, which inherently suppresses bit-flip errors, the researchers estimate that RSA-2048 could be factored using only 22,593 physical qubits over a period of 3.14 days. This represents a massive efficiency gain compared to previous estimates, such as those from Google Quantum AI, by a factor of approximately 40. The study also addresses the Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem (ECDLP-256), suggesting it could be broken in roughly 61.8 minutes using 29,588 physical qubits. These breakthroughs are attributed to three primary technical advancements: the use of cat qubits to simplify error correction, the implementation of more efficient LDPC-cat codes that halve the required qubit count, and a redesigned adder optimized for continuous operation without error-correction delays. While these figures represent theoretical resource projections rather than an immediate demonstration of an attack, they serve as a critical warning for the cybersecurity community. The researchers emphasize that because replacing global cryptographic infrastructure is a multi-year endeavor, organizations should accelerate their transition to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) to meet the 2035 deadlines suggested by US and UK guidance.